Prediction Marketplace

The Market Opportunity

Prediction markets just went mainstream. Wall Street has committed $4.5 billion to the category (ICE alone put $2B into Polymarket), and the leading venues now carry $15B (Polymarket) and $22B (Kalshi) valuations. Combined monthly volume hit $28 billion in May 2026, a quarter-trillion-dollar annual run rate, still accelerating. Industry projections put the category at $1 trillion by 2030.

Yet every major venue (Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid) makes the same structural choice: cap payouts at $1 per share. Fully collateralised binary contracts fix the maximum in advance, so your maximum profit is locked the moment you buy. BASIS runs uncapped pari-mutuel instead: the only venue on the other side of that architecture.

That makes incumbent volume our addressable market, not our competition. Every dollar traded on a capped venue is a position that can be hedged on BASIS. We grow as the category grows, toward a trillion dollars.

What the Replay Shows

We replayed 499 resolved markets representing $26.6B settled and compared what the same positions would have returned on BASIS. The pool beats the book up to 70.5c, and the window where it wins sits at 71-78% of the pot. Parlays return 98.5c on the dollar, against New Jersey's 75.8c.

How the Venue Is Structured

The BASIS team develops the software and does not operate the venue. The venue runs offshore. Pari-mutuel is not a novel structure: it is a mechanism that has been supervised for a century, and Polymarket is the nearest precedent for the on-chain form of it.

Introducing Predict+

Predict+ combines event-based markets with investment-grade assets. Unlike traditional binary platforms, Predict+ creates a comprehensive prediction economy.

Critical distinction: Each prediction market has one Predict+ token, not individual outcomes. Buying the token is separate from betting on outcomes. The token trades on the DEX. A bet is converted into the market's Predict+ token and joins the market's pot.

The Problem with Traditional Prediction Markets

Conventional platforms cap payouts at $1 per share. Basis runs pari-mutuel: winners split the entire losing pool, uncapped. Markets currently support up to 150 outcomes each. A market can pay the winner only, or up to ten finishing places. Basis currently operates offshore.

The Predict+ Solution: One Token Per Market

Four Ways to Participate

  1. Hold for appreciation: the token's price cannot fall in its base asset (Stable+ mechanics). Back an event's popularity without betting on an outcome; a sale still receives less than the quoted price
  2. Trade on DEX: Capture volatility from news and sentiment
  3. Use as collateral: 100% LTV loans against your Predict+ tokens
  4. Bet on outcomes: winners are paid from the market's pot, uncapped. The pot is held in the market's token and sold into USDG when you redeem.

Post-Resolution Selling Dynamic

After resolution, selling burns tokens > slippage stays in the pool > price goes up in its base asset. A sale still gets less than the quoted price. Patient holders can exit at higher prices than early sellers.

Event Creation

Step 1: Event name, symbol, icon, description, optional end date, 2 to 150 mutually exclusive answers.

Step 2: Presale size (a number of market tokens, set by the creator; it can be zero), Resolution Style (Basis Managed or Creator Managed), Event Type (Public or Private).

Seed amount (creating a market): the minimum seed is set per main. For example, where one unit is 1 USDG it is currently 50 USDG for Basis Managed, 10 USDG for Creator Managed (public) and none for Creator Managed (private), in steps of 10. A seed is not a fee: it buys the creator an equal position on every outcome and pays out like any bet.

Betting Mechanics

  • Odds start equal (50% each for a binary market, 33% for three outcomes). A share costs about its odds in USDG at launch.
  • As shares are purchased, price/probability adjusts
  • One-winner market: payout = your winning shares / all winning shares x the pot. A market that pays several places first returns each winning group's stake, then divides the rest by the payout split.
  • Uncapped payouts: Predict+ shares are NOT capped at $1: a 5c share can pay $4+ on resolution depending on the size of the losing pool
  • Exit before resolution via the order book

Resolution

Basis Managed: An AI resolver proposes most outcomes within hours; a second AI audits the proposal. The two bonded judges are accountable to each other. If undisputed, the outcome settles. If disputed, a vote of BASIS AI agents decides. After a veto, the BASIS team makes the final ruling. If a market is declared invalid, every share is refunded at the average price paid for that outcome, after fees.

Creator Managed: The creator and up to 10 voters they appoint each vote once. Fifteen minutes after the first vote anyone can close the vote: the most-voted result wins, and a tie goes to the creator's vote. Final: no dispute process. "Invalid" option available.

Discussion Tab

Wallet-signed comments. Requires 1 trade > $5 on that market (anti-spam). Creator badge shown.

Revenue Model

A bet pays the 0.60% base fee plus the market's creator fee. The base fee flows through the standard fee split and the creator fee goes to the market's creator. There is no winning-pot recycling and no bounty pool.

On a bet, the base fee splits 10% to the vault of the token's main, 10% to the operating team, 15% and 5% to the trader's two referrers, and 60% to the BASIS buyback (80% when the trader has no referrer). That 60% includes the 15% that a token trade on the DEX sends to SOCIAL for Alpha+ authors: on a bet it goes to the buyback and is burned. The creator fee is paid in full to the market's creator; market tokens have no rewards fee.

Competitive Advantage

Uncapped pari-mutuel payouts vs $1/share cap | Token investment separate from betting | Stable+ mechanics on every prediction token