Betting on Events

System Overview

The Basis Predict+ betting system represents a significant advancement in decentralized prediction markets. Through the combination of AMM-style pools, Stable+ token technology, and a robust multi-layered resolution process, the platform provides a fair, transparent, and efficient marketplace for event prediction.

The innovative resolution economic model, with its carefully designed fee structure and bond requirements, incentivizes accurate resolution while preventing manipulation. A vote of BASIS AI agents decides disputed outcomes. After a veto, the BASIS team makes the final ruling.

By aligning incentives through the fee distribution model and providing multiple resolution pathways, the system creates a sustainable and trustworthy prediction market ecosystem that benefits all participants.

Key Components

Smart Contract Infrastructure: Automated execution of bets and payouts
AMM-Style Pool: Dynamic odds adjustment based on volume
Oracle System: Automated and community based outcome resolution
Dispute Mechanism: Bond-based challenge system, decided by a vote of AI agents

Betting Phase Mechanics

Initialization

Betting opens when the market is created, with the following parameters:

All outcomes begin with equal odds (e.g., 50/50 for binary events)
Bets can be paid in the market's Predict+ token, USDG, STASIS or another BASIS token

Betting Process

Selection: User selects an event outcome to bet on
Currency Choice: User chooses to bet with the market's Predict+ token, USDG, STASIS or another BASIS token
Amount Input: User specifies bet amount
Share Calculation: System calculates outcome shares based on current odds
Transaction Execution: Smart contract processes the bet and adjusts odds

Dynamic Odds Adjustment

Odds automatically adjust after each bet based on the volume distribution across outcomes.

This AMM-style mechanism ensures:

Market efficiency through volume-based price discovery
Protection against manipulation through algorithmic adjustment
Real-time reflection of market sentiment

Odds Calculation System

Odds move with the money bet on each outcome. Every market starts with equal odds. As more bets land on an outcome it becomes more expensive and the other outcomes cheaper.

Buying Shares

When a user places a bet (buys shares), the calculation follows:

User inputs an amount
System calculates shares received based on current odds
Odds adjust for the next bet

Example: a two-outcome market starts at 50/50. A bet on A moves the odds toward A, for example to about 51/49. How far a bet moves the odds depends on the market's size, which is set per main.

Selling Shares

Users can exit positions before event resolution by selling shares.

Selling outcome shares happens via a P2P order book: you list your shares at a price at or below the current odds, and a buyer fills the order. There is no cap on what a winning share pays at resolution.

The order-book exit lets users:

Cut losses if market sentiment shifts
Manage risk dynamically throughout the event lifecycle
Take profits before resolution if the market moves in your favor

Event Resolution Process

Fee Structure

The Predict+ platform charges fees at the following stages of betting:

Transaction Fees

Bet: the 0.60% base fee (0.54% with a referrer) plus the market's creator fee. A bet paid in another BASIS token first pays that token's normal sell fee.
Order-book sale: buyer and seller each pay the fee on the fill

Bettors who hold their position until event resolution do not pay a sell fee. Redeeming after resolution pays no fee.

Fee Distribution

The base fee flows through the standard fee split, and the creator fee goes to the market's creator. There is no winning-pot recycling and no bounty pool.

On a bet, the base fee splits 10% to the vault of the token's main, 10% to the operating team, 15% and 5% to the trader's two referrers, and 60% to the BASIS buyback (80% when the trader has no referrer). That 60% includes the 15% that a token trade on the DEX sends to SOCIAL for Alpha+ authors: on a bet it goes to the buyback and is burned. The creator fee is paid in full to the market's creator; market tokens have no rewards fee.

Resolution Bond Requirements

Bonds are posted in the resolver's bond token (one fixed token, not the market's currency):

Proposal bond: doubles each time a proposal on that market is ruled too early (up to eight times)
Dispute bond: matches the proposal bond, up to a cap
Veto bond: the proposal bond, held between a floor and the same cap

The amounts are set on the resolver and shown on each market page.

Disputed outcomes are decided by a vote of BASIS AI agents. Each agent votes once. The most-voted outcome wins if at least two votes were cast; a tie, or fewer than two votes, starts a new round. Votes are public. Voters post no bond and receive none. After a veto, the BASIS team makes the final ruling.

Time-Based Creator Markets

For markets with predetermined resolution times, the following process applies. The length of each window is set on the resolver and shown on each market page.

Resolution Timing

Dispute window: the time to dispute a proposal
Voting window: counted from the dispute
Veto window: after the voting window
Decision: the most-voted outcome, with at least two votes

Creator Resolution (Priority)

The creator can propose as soon as the market ends; anyone else 15 minutes later. Everyone, the creator included, posts the proposal bond.
If undisputed during the dispute window, the creator's bond is returned

Community Resolution (Fallback)

From 15 minutes after the market ends, anyone can propose the outcome by posting the proposal bond
If undisputed during the dispute window, the community proposer's bond is returned

Dispute Process

Disputes can be raised within the dispute window by posting the dispute bond and proposing an alternative outcome
Once disputed, BASIS AI agents vote within the voting window
Dispute winner: gets their own bond back plus the loser's, up to twice their own; any excess goes to the insurance fund
Dispute loser: forfeits their bond

Final Veto

After the voting window, anyone except the proposer and the disputer may veto the result once, within the veto window, by posting the veto bond
The BASIS team then makes the final ruling

Non-Time-Based Creator Markets

For markets without predetermined resolution times, resolution can occur through:

Resolution Options

Creator resolution
Community member

Resolution Process

Either the creator or community member can propose an outcome at any time by posting the proposal bond
If undisputed within the dispute window, the resolver's bond is returned

Betting stops while a proposal is open. A dispute can answer 'too early'. If that wins, the proposal is thrown out, betting reopens and the next proposal bond doubles. The disputer gets their own bond back plus half of the proposer's bond, up to twice their own; the rest goes to the insurance fund.

Dispute Process

Disputes can be raised within the dispute window by posting the dispute bond and proposing an alternative outcome
Once disputed, BASIS AI agents vote within the voting window
Dispute winner: gets their own bond back plus the loser's, up to twice their own; any excess goes to the insurance fund
Dispute loser: forfeits their bond

Private Creator Markets

A "private" event may be created where the creator and the voters they appoint resolve the event outcome:

The creator and up to 10 wallets they appoint each vote once.
There is no dispute process.
Fifteen minutes after the first vote anyone can close the vote. The most-voted result wins. A tie goes to the creator's vote: if the creator voted for none of the tied results the market is invalid, and if the creator has not voted the market waits for that vote.

Basis is unable to verify the outcome of private event so event participants are trusting the creator to resolve accurately.

Basis-Created Markets

Markets created by Basis utilize automated resolution mechanisms for efficiency:

Automated Oracle Resolution

AI proposer: a house wallet proposes most outcomes within hours
AI auditor: a second house wallet audits the proposal and disputes it if it disagrees

Both post a bond. Disputed AI proposals go to a vote of AI agents.

Community Oracle Fallback

When automated oracles unavailable, community member can act as oracle by posting the proposal bond
Both automated and community proposals can be disputed within the dispute window
Disputed resolutions go to a vote of AI agents within the voting window

Invalid Markets

Markets may be declared invalid by the creator or community member by posting a bond:

Invalid Market Declaration

An "invalid" outcome can be disputed by a community member by posting the dispute bond.
Once disputed, BASIS AI agents vote within the voting window
Dispute winner: gets their own bond back plus the loser's, up to twice their own; any excess goes to the insurance fund
Dispute loser: forfeits their bond

Invalid Market Resolution

Every share is refunded at the average price paid for that outcome, after fees. The refund is paid in USDG when you redeem.
Bonds are returned to correct resolvers and forfeited by incorrect ones, as in any other dispute
No winning or losing positions are declared

Dispute vote

Timeline: the voting window is set on the resolver and shown on each market page.

Payout Distribution

Winner Determination

Once the dispute window closes and the outcome is finalized through the resolution process, the system determines winners based on their bet positions matching the resolved outcome.

Payout Calculation Formula

Winners receive payouts calculated as follows:

The pot = every bet on the market after its fee, winning and losing outcomes together, held in the market's Predict+ token

Individual Payout = (User's Winning Shares / Total Winning Shares) × the pot, for a market with one winner. A market that pays several places first returns each winning group's stake, then divides the rest by the payout split.

Claiming Process

Winners claim their payouts through the Basis dApp:

Navigate to the resolved event page
Click "Claim Winnings" button
Confirm transaction in wallet
Receive the pair asset (USDG on the first main) directly to your wallet (your share of the pot is sold into it when you claim)

There is no time limit for claiming winnings. Payouts remain available indefinitely in the smart contract.

Example Payout Scenario

Event: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31?"

"Yes" shares outstanding: 10,000

The pot at resolution: worth about 25,000 USDG

Outcome: Bitcoin reaches $100,000 ("Yes" wins)

A holder of 100 "Yes" shares receives: (100 / 10,000) × 25,000 = about 250 USDG

Risk Management

Stable+ Token Advantages

The use of Stable+ technology for Predict+ tokens provides unique risk management benefits:

Price Floor: Token price cannot fall in its base asset. This is a contract property, not a guarantee of outcome.
Incentive Alignment: Redeeming after resolution pays no fee
Reduced Volatility: Up-only mechanics reduce panic selling

Resolution Security

The multi-layered resolution process provides robust security:

Bond requirements deter frivolous disputes
Economic penalties for incorrect resolutions
A vote of AI agents decides disputes; after a veto, the BASIS team makes the final ruling

Peer-to-Peer Marketplace

The decentralized nature of the marketplace provides inherent risk mitigation:

The smart contract holds all funds, so no bookmaker has to pay you out
Transparent pool sizes and odds visible on-chain
Every bet is recorded on chain
Automated execution eliminates human error