Binary outcomes are just the beginning. Here are five strategies that turn prediction markets into a real business.
Prediction markets are one of the most useful financial tools ever made. They turn collective knowledge into a price for how likely something is, and they pay real money for correct forecasts. It's one of the few markets where being right matters more than being early.
BASIS takes prediction markets further. A market on BASIS isn't just a place to bet on outcomes. It comes with a linked Predict+ token that can be held, borrowed against and levered, so a single market becomes a set of building blocks you can combine.
This is the complete playbook.
How Predict+ Markets Work
Creating a Market
Anyone, human or agent, can create a prediction market on BASIS. The process:
- Ask the question: "Who will win the 2026 World Series?"
- Set the outcomes: ["Yes", "No"], or many more. A market can have up to 150 outcomes, and multi-outcome markets are where BASIS shines.
- Pick the market type: Winner, Podium or UP/DOWN are live today. Exact order, Parlay and Survivor are coming.
- Set the closing date: when the market stops taking new bets.
- Set your creator fee: anywhere from 0% to 1%, paid on trading in your market. You can change it at most once every four hours, so bettors are never surprised by a sudden jump.
Give the World Series question five outcomes (Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Other) and a six-month close, and you have one market with a creator fee on every trade it attracts. Every bet also pays the 0.60% base fee, which funds the vault, the referrers, the team and the BASIS buyback.
Two Ways In: Outcome Shares and the Predict+ Token
Every market gives you two kinds of position.
Outcome shares are a bet. You buy shares in the outcome you think will happen, and the more you hold, the bigger your slice of the pool if it wins.
# Bet 50 USDG on outcome 0 ("Yankees")
result = client.prediction_markets.buy(
market_token, 0, # outcome 0 = Yankees
USDG, 50 * 10**pair_decimals, # 50 USDG
min_tokens, min_shares # always set real minimums, never 0
)A share's price reflects the odds the market puts on that outcome. If "Yankees" trades at 0.20, the market is pricing roughly a 20% chance.
The Predict+ token is the other way in. Most markets have one, and it trades on a Stable+ curve: its price can only hold or rise in its base asset. Holding it is not a bet on any outcome. It's a position on the market itself, and you can hold it without picking a winner. It's also the piece that unlocks the rest of the platform: you can borrow against it and lever it, which you can't do with outcome shares.
The Payout Model: Winners Split the Whole Pool
This is where BASIS differs from a standard prediction market.
On a standard fixed-payout market: buy "Yes" at $0.20 and win, and each share pays $1.00. Your payout is capped at 5x your stake, a profit of 4x. It doesn't matter how much money was on the wrong side. The ceiling is fixed.
On BASIS: when a market resolves, winners split the whole pool. A winning share isn't capped at $1. The more money that backed the wrong outcomes, the more each winning share is worth.
With five outcomes and roughly even betting, about 80% of the pool sits on outcomes that lose. A correct bet at 20% odds can return far more than 5x, depending on how the pool is spread.
Five Capital Deployment Strategies
Because a market has both outcome shares and a Predict+ token, it plugs into everything else BASIS does: lending, leverage and vaults.
Strategy 1: Pure Conviction
The simplest play. You believe in an outcome. You buy shares. You wait.
Best for: high conviction, low effort. One bet and done.
A quieter version of the same idea is to buy the market's Predict+ token instead. You don't pick a winner. You're backing the market to draw interest.
Strategy 2: Creator Fee Farm
Create markets on events people care about. You don't even have to bet. You earn your creator fee on other people's trading.
The play:
- Scan news and social feeds for rising topics
- Create markets before anyone else
- Promote them to drive trading
- Collect your creator fee on every trade
An agent can run this across many markets a day. A human creator with good instincts does the same. Whoever judges best which markets people want builds a portfolio of fee-earning markets.
Strategy 3: Loan-Bet Combo
This is where combining products pays off.
- Buy the market's Predict+ token
- Borrow USDG against it, 100% of its floor value before fees
- Bet on the outcome you believe in with the borrowed USDG
- Result: the same capital works twice, once as collateral and once as a bet
If the bet wins, you collect, repay the loan and still hold the Predict+ token. If it loses, the bet is gone, but the Predict+ token is still yours as long as you repay or extend the loan before its date.
Risk: the loan has no price liquidation. It ends on its date, not on a dip. Before expiry you repay or extend. If you do neither, a keeper closes the loan after expiry: the collateral that covers the debt is taken to repay it, 10% of the rest is the liquidation fee, and you claim the remainder. Claim within 365 days of the liquidation; after that the leftover may no longer be claimable. A loan is sized at the floor, which never falls, so its collateral is designed to cover the debt. Loans cost 2% to open plus 0.005% a day, and repaying is free.
Strategy 4: Leveraged Conviction
For operators who believe a market will draw serious volume and accept more risk.
- Open a leveraged position on the market's Predict+ token, up to about 37x depending on the token and the size of the buy
- Because Predict+ trades on a Stable+ curve, that leverage is available at any point in the market's life, not just at launch
- The position opens in one transaction and settles by date, with no price liquidation
- Fees apply on each buy inside the position, and they're shown before you open it. Closing costs 3% of the profit.
A leveraged position is its own thing: it runs to its date and is kept separate from your loans. Choose the path that fits the position.
Strategy 5: Full Stack
Run all of the above at once, with allocation rules:
- 40% of capital → creator fee farms (no outcome risk; income depends on volume)
- 30% → conviction bets (medium risk, high upside)
- 20% → loan-bet combos (more exposure from the same capital)
- 10% → new market experiments
Rebalance weekly on performance, and run every stream in parallel.
After Resolution
What you do after a market resolves matters as much as the bet.
Collecting Your Winnings
Once a market is resolved, holders of a winning outcome redeem their share of the pool.
# Redeem all of a winning position
result = client.prediction_markets.redeem(market_token, 10000, 1, min_out)If you hold the Predict+ token, resolution doesn't force anything. You can hold it or sell it whenever suits you.
The Order Book Advantage
You don't have to wait for resolution to get out. BASIS prediction markets include a peer-to-peer order book, so you can:
- List your shares for sale at the price you want
- Buy from other holders' listings
- Exit early if the odds move in your favor before the market closes
For agents, it's an optimization tool: list at your target price and let the buyer come to you.
# List 100 shares of outcome 0 at odds of 0.75
result = client.order_book.list_order(
market_token, 0,
100 * 10**18, # 100 shares
750_000_000_000_000_000 # price as odds × 1e18
)Resolution and Disputes
What happens when someone disagrees with the result?
Public Markets: Bonded, Disputable, Voted
Public markets use a staged system:
- Proposal: a proposer posts a bond and puts forward the result
- Dispute: anyone who disagrees can dispute it
- Vote: disputes go to a vote
- Veto: a voted result can be vetoed. After a veto, the BASIS team makes the final ruling
- Payout: the side proven right is paid from the bonds of the side that was wrong
AI resolvers research outcomes along the way. The result is a market for truth: getting it right pays, and a false claim costs real money.
Private Markets: Creator Resolution
Private markets are simpler. They're resolved by their creator, or by voters the creator picks. That suits outcomes a known group can confirm, such as company milestones or community goals. But be clear about what it means: in a private market you're trusting that creator. If you don't, don't play.
The Multi-Outcome Advantage
Yes/No markets are fine. Multi-outcome markets are where BASIS really stands apart.
Why more outcomes means bigger payouts:
In a two-outcome market with even betting, half the pool backs the loser. In a five-outcome market, about 80% does. In a market with dozens of candidates, nearly all of it does.
More outcomes means more money on wrong answers, and because winners split the whole pool, more for each correct share. With up to 150 outcomes per market, the effect can be large. A fixed $1 payout captures none of it.
Podium markets add another dimension: instead of a single winner, payouts can reach the top finishers, which suits races, tournaments and rankings.
Agent strategy: seek out and create multi-outcome markets. Sports (many teams), elections (many candidates), award shows (many nominees), crypto prices (many brackets). The more outcomes you offer, the better the payout looks to bettors, and the more trading, and creator fees, you attract.
Putting It All Together
The complete Predict+ cycle:
- Scout rising events with social listening and news feeds
- Create multi-outcome markets before anyone else
- Promote them with content across X, Telegram and Discord
- Trade outcome shares based on your analysis
- Hold or lever the Predict+ token, and borrow against it to bet without new capital
- Earn your creator fee on every trade in your markets
- Exit early through the order book, or redeem after resolution
- Reinvest winnings into new markets
Every step can earn. Every step feeds the next cycle.
That's not prediction market gambling. That's a prediction market business, open to any operator who wants to run it, human or autonomous.
Predict+ on BASIS, live on Robinhood Chain and trading in USDG: create markets, trade outcomes, borrow against Predict+, and let winners split the whole pool. The prediction market system for operators who think bigger than a bet. launchonbasis.com
Basis Team
Published Mar 21, 2026